Stanley Cup Playoffs

Here come the playoffs: what’s your theory?

/ Thomas A. Glass / Leave a comment

With just a couple of weeks left in the NHL regular season, everyone is in hard playoff prep mode. I’m no exception. This is the time of year I like to ask myself a simple question: what’s my theory about which teams will out-perform the rest starting in game 83? Why does this question matter? Like in science, we all need a good theory to guide our decision making. Whether you are betting on hockey, playing fantasy, write a hockey blog, or just watching the games from the front of your seat, we all want to prognosticate the playoffs despite how hard it is to do. Who saw the Montreal Canadians in the finals last year? Not many. But what theory, if held then, would have lead to the right prediction? What about the unexpected appearance of the Vegas Golden Knights in the finals in their inaugural campaign? Thinking theories allows us to deepen our knowledge of the underlying dynamics of the game of hockey. Stating your expectations before the race for the cup starts allows us to test our understanding of those dynamics. What matters most in the playoffs? Is it the hot goalie? Team speed? Defensive prowess? A hot streak down the stretch? Now is the time to put our cards on the table.

Have a look at this simple table that lists my top 6 theories for predicting playoff success. For each theory, there is a brief description along with a few of the key metrics for ranking teams, and a tentative list of the teams that can be expected to excel if the theory is true. What order would you put these theories? What theories are not here? Send me some feedback!

Theory:Description:Key metrics:Teams that should do well*:
1. The hot goalieThe hot goalie going into the payoffs or the goalie that gets hot.5-on-5 save %, Goals saved above expectation, goals against averageRangers, Flames, Lightning, Predators, Avalanche (dark horse)
2. Best team DDefense wins championships. Goals get more scarce in the playoffs. Shot suppression is the key. Shots allowed per game, goals against, penalty kill %, blocks per gameHurricanes, Flames, Rangers, Avalanche (dark horse)
3. Scoring machineryScoring amidst the intensity of playoff hockey is different. The team that can generate shots and chances have the edge.Goals for (and per game), power play %, CORSI forPanthers, Maple leafs, Avalanche, Wild, Blues (dark horse)
4. The power of special teamsPenalties get scarce in the playoffs. That means the teams that score with the extra man when chances are reduced have a leg up. A poor PK is a death sentence when overall scoring goes down. Power play %, short-handed face-off win %, Penalty kill %Maple leafs, Rangers, Blues, Oilers, Hurricanes, Penguins (dark horse)
5. The bruisersPlayoff hockey is big boy hockey. At the end of the day, the team that dominates physically has the edge over teams that feature speed and finesse. Average player size, hits and blocks per gamePredators, Bruins, Lightning, Rangers, Panthers, Golden Knights (dark horse)
6. Road warriorsIn the playoffs, home ice advantage is a real thing. Many matchups come down to which team can win a key game in the other team’s barn. Staying cool on the road tests a team’s mettle. Road points %, Regulation road wins, road goal differentialCapitals, Rangers, Avalanche, Panthers, Flames, Penguins (dark horse)
*Rankings in this table are based on current statistics based on listed key metrics

How often in the last 10 years has the Norris trophy winning defenseman appeared in a Stanley Cup final?

/ Thomas A. Glass / Leave a comment

Today on the Point on NHL radio network, Jake and Boomer ranked today’s inter-conference games asking which is most likely to presage this year’s Stanley Cup final. They disagreed about the game between the Avalanche and Rangers; Boomer called it the most likely and Jake said it was #2. I think Jake is right. Why? I hypothesize that highly productive star defensemen are vastly over-rated in terms of overall team success as well as playoff results. This is one of the most significant market inefficiencies that has escaped notice by hockey analysts. The reason is simple: in hockey, we only value the things we can count. As I have said before, the weirdest thing about hockey is that it’s the only major sport where nobody counts mistakes (except perhaps for goalies). Turnovers, icing, offsides, defensive mistakes, and penalties that result in goals against, all not counted in any serious way. When a defenseman scores a goal every 3 games, we give him a Norris trophy, but pay no attention to how many goals against he gives up as a result of his offensive adventures.

Let’s look at some data:

To put some meat on these bones, I asked the data a simple question: over the last 10 seasons, how many times has the Norris trophy winner appeared in the Stanley Cup finals? If star D-men are highly valued, they should increase the team’s chance of going all the way. Take a moment before looking and make your own guess.

The answer: Zero.

Not only that, but the team with the Norris winner has lost in the first round in 7 of the last 10 seasons. This doesn’t prove that offensive superstar D-men are overrated, but it is a piece of the puzzle. If you think, as most do, that the most likely candidates for this year’s Norris are Makar and Fox, you might lean toward tonight’s matchup between the Avs and Rangers as a cup final preview. The data don’t support that view.