One ongoing interest I have is comparing the strength of the NHL divisions.  Now that we have passed the Thanksgiving break and most teams are at 20 games, it’s time to take a look.  Here is my analysis and it is a surprise.  Have a look at this graph.  There are three different answers to the question of which division is the strongest (overall goal differential, and expected points in and out of the division over an 82 game season based on performance so far). 

Based on all three metrics, the metro and pacific divisions right now are the strongest.  The Atlantic and Central both have negative goal differentials and at least 10 fewer expected out of division points compared to the Metro. I believe the out-of-division points expected is the best overall gauge of a division’s strength. Based on that, I’d give the edge to the Metro right now. Points are hardest to come by in the division (right side) and Metro teams are outpacing the others outside their division. What do you think?

Let’s look at one more graph. This time, it’s average points percentage overall and home vs. away. Points percentage is the percentage of total points that could be won that are, taking account of overtime and shootout losses. Similar story here as the Metro is taking the highest points percentage at 59.4% of available points. More significantly, they are the only division taking over 60% of the points when playing away. There is overall a home-ice advantage in the NHL; except when a Metro team is in your barn. Right now the Metro is the strongest division.

PS: If anyone looked at this page before December 2, you will notice that the figures changed. My original posting contained an error from my spreadsheet that made it appear the Central was the strongest. I apologize for the error.