With just a couple of weeks left in the NHL regular season, everyone is in hard playoff prep mode. I’m no exception. This is the time of year I like to ask myself a simple question: what’s my theory about which teams will out-perform the rest starting in game 83? Why does this question matter? Like in science, we all need a good theory to guide our decision making. Whether you are betting on hockey, playing fantasy, write a hockey blog, or just watching the games from the front of your seat, we all want to prognosticate the playoffs despite how hard it is to do. Who saw the Montreal Canadians in the finals last year? Not many. But what theory, if held then, would have lead to the right prediction? What about the unexpected appearance of the Vegas Golden Knights in the finals in their inaugural campaign? Thinking theories allows us to deepen our knowledge of the underlying dynamics of the game of hockey. Stating your expectations before the race for the cup starts allows us to test our understanding of those dynamics. What matters most in the playoffs? Is it the hot goalie? Team speed? Defensive prowess? A hot streak down the stretch? Now is the time to put our cards on the table.
Have a look at this simple table that lists my top 6 theories for predicting playoff success. For each theory, there is a brief description along with a few of the key metrics for ranking teams, and a tentative list of the teams that can be expected to excel if the theory is true. What order would you put these theories? What theories are not here? Send me some feedback!
| Theory: | Description: | Key metrics: | Teams that should do well*: |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The hot goalie | The hot goalie going into the payoffs or the goalie that gets hot. | 5-on-5 save %, Goals saved above expectation, goals against average | Rangers, Flames, Lightning, Predators, Avalanche (dark horse) |
| 2. Best team D | Defense wins championships. Goals get more scarce in the playoffs. Shot suppression is the key. | Shots allowed per game, goals against, penalty kill %, blocks per game | Hurricanes, Flames, Rangers, Avalanche (dark horse) |
| 3. Scoring machinery | Scoring amidst the intensity of playoff hockey is different. The team that can generate shots and chances have the edge. | Goals for (and per game), power play %, CORSI for | Panthers, Maple leafs, Avalanche, Wild, Blues (dark horse) |
| 4. The power of special teams | Penalties get scarce in the playoffs. That means the teams that score with the extra man when chances are reduced have a leg up. A poor PK is a death sentence when overall scoring goes down. | Power play %, short-handed face-off win %, Penalty kill % | Maple leafs, Rangers, Blues, Oilers, Hurricanes, Penguins (dark horse) |
| 5. The bruisers | Playoff hockey is big boy hockey. At the end of the day, the team that dominates physically has the edge over teams that feature speed and finesse. | Average player size, hits and blocks per game | Predators, Bruins, Lightning, Rangers, Panthers, Golden Knights (dark horse) |
| 6. Road warriors | In the playoffs, home ice advantage is a real thing. Many matchups come down to which team can win a key game in the other team’s barn. Staying cool on the road tests a team’s mettle. | Road points %, Regulation road wins, road goal differential | Capitals, Rangers, Avalanche, Panthers, Flames, Penguins (dark horse) |
Professor on Ice 