What statistics should we be looking at now to predict the teams most likely to have success in the playoffs?
Quiz #1: what are the top 5 teams in terms of goals scored per 100 shots (aka team on-ice shooting percentage)? I bet you know the answer already. Here are the numbers as of yesterday:
There are 5 teams now scoring over 11 goals per 100 shots taken (excluding shot attempts that don’t result in a shot on net). They are the usual suspects with the surprising Wild leading the pack with more than eleven and a half. The most offensively efficient teams include the Blues, Lightning, Avs and Panthers. The Habs, Canucks and Kings are at the bottom with the lowest offensive efficiency.
So are these teams poised to make deep playoff runs? I am not convinced this is the most promising team-level predictor of playoff success. What else?
Quiz #2: what are the 5 teams in the NHL that give up the fewest goals per 100 shots against (1-team on-ice save percentage)? Take a guess before you look at the data. Is it the same teams? Is this redundant information for what we already know? Think you might be surprised?
I was surprised until I thought about it. The Rangers? Really? Three of the five most efficient defensive teams aren’t even in the top 10 in team shooting percentage. The Canucks at #5 are second from worst in offensive efficiency. Last season, the Islanders were tops in defensive efficiency but didn’t make the top ten in shooting percentage. They went to the conference championship again. These lists aren’t telling the same story.
On second thought, the top defensively efficient teams are the ones with the strongest goalies.
Right now, both these measures correlate powerfully with team points percentage:
I find it fascinating that these team stats don’t line up. I suspect the red graph will give us better power to predict what’s going to happen starting game 83. But right now, who is picking the Rangers, Flames or Penguins to win the Stanley Cup?
Professor on Ice 