Today on the Point on NHL radio network, Jake and Boomer ranked today’s inter-conference games asking which is most likely to presage this year’s Stanley Cup final. They disagreed about the game between the Avalanche and Rangers; Boomer called it the most likely and Jake said it was #2. I think Jake is right. Why? I hypothesize that highly productive star defensemen are vastly over-rated in terms of overall team success as well as playoff results. This is one of the most significant market inefficiencies that has escaped notice by hockey analysts. The reason is simple: in hockey, we only value the things we can count. As I have said before, the weirdest thing about hockey is that it’s the only major sport where nobody counts mistakes (except perhaps for goalies). Turnovers, icing, offsides, defensive mistakes, and penalties that result in goals against, all not counted in any serious way. When a defenseman scores a goal every 3 games, we give him a Norris trophy, but pay no attention to how many goals against he gives up as a result of his offensive adventures.

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Let’s look at some data:

To put some meat on these bones, I asked the data a simple question: over the last 10 seasons, how many times has the Norris trophy winner appeared in the Stanley Cup finals? If star D-men are highly valued, they should increase the team’s chance of going all the way. Take a moment before looking and make your own guess.

The answer: Zero.

Not only that, but the team with the Norris winner has lost in the first round in 7 of the last 10 seasons. This doesn’t prove that offensive superstar D-men are overrated, but it is a piece of the puzzle. If you think, as most do, that the most likely candidates for this year’s Norris are Makar and Fox, you might lean toward tonight’s matchup between the Avs and Rangers as a cup final preview. The data don’t support that view.