Here is a question for hockey people. There are two massive changes that have impacted hockey over the last 30 years. The first is the shift from wood sticks to more flexible, lighter composite sticks. The Great One set records for points and goals using the old wooden sticks, at least until the arrival of the aluminum shafted stick in the 1990s. Everyone agrees that the new sticks are a big change, both for skaters and goalies. The new composite sticks offer significantly more control, power and precision compared to the old wooden sticks. Second, after the lockout, the NHL introduced Rule 55, ushering in a zero-tolerance policy for hooking, holding and stick violations. The objective of Rule 55 was to unleash the scoring power of the high skill players. Both these changes are hard to underestimate. Both should have increased average scoring in the NHL. Is that what happened?

Have a look at the chart I made today. It’s pretty interesting. It shows the average goals per game for each NHL season from 1980 till today (the blue bars) and the average number of power play goals per game (red bars). The golden age of scoring was in the early 80s. Goals per game peaked at over 4 during the 1981-82 season. That was the heart of the wooden stick/hocking & holding era! Average goals per game stayed above 3.5 until 94-95. The first composite blade wasn’t introduced till 1995. In 2001, the first 1-piece stick was introduced. Scoring fell consistently during the switch from wood to exotic materials. How could that be? After the lockout, rule 55 stimulated a third of a goal per game rise in scoring. Power play goals spiked to over 1 a game in 05-06 only to fall by half a goal a game by 2013. Average goals per game rose from 2.77 to 2.97 in 2017-18 and briefly jumped over 3 a game in 2018-2020.

It is really weird though that composite sticks and the end of hooking and holding resulted in LESS rather than MORE goals. Why is that? I think it’s one of the biggest mysteries of hockey. NHL players have gotten stronger, faster, bigger and more skilled. Their sticks are lighter, more powerful and easier to control. Despite those shifts, average goals per game is about 1 less than it was in the early 80s. There must be something bigger, more potent that is working against the push for higher scoring.

My theory? As the average skating speed of players rises, the effective distance between players shrinks. Faster players on the same size ice means the amount of open ice declines. This, coupled with increased team commitment to defense, means that puck possession and control gets harder. While everyone knows that lighter more powerful sticks improved shooting, they also dramatically improved defense! Lighter sticks help defensemen as much as they do shooters, possibly even more. Faster skaters close the gaps between attackers and defenders, creating less open ice, and forcing more puck chaos.

When are we going to get the speed and possession-level data that will let us study this stuff?