In hockey, there is a whole family of statistics we really need to evaluate talent and make predictions that we can’t get because the data is so hard to acquire.

This is especially true of goalie performance. Blah blah blah.  Let’s save that for later.

We are now in the “NEW NHL” (whatever that means).  At least it means the rising importance of team speed, higher value of skill play, and, most importantly, puck control.  If Team A has control of the puck the entire game, it only makes sense that the other team is less likely to score.

We lack decent statistics to inform us about how well teams do the NEW NHL.  We can track team time of possession, which is fine, but that doesn’t tell us about the value of individual players in grabbing, holding and advancing the puck control agenda.

I propose a new statistic I will call player sure-handedness.  It’s a simple idea.  Let’s track each time a given player on the ice takes possession of the puck during gameplay.   Once player X takes possession, what he or she does with it has a great deal to do with whether good things happen or whether puck control will shift to the opposition.

Okay, let’s admit that player possession is a gray area.  I don’t mean every player touch.  There are plenty of moments a given player lays a stick on a puck in a corner scrum.  Those occasions are random, with pucks bouncing this way or that.  Let’s also exclude face-offs for the same reason.  And for now, let’s forget when the goalie gains possession.

Once a player takes possession, lots of things can happen.  But for the moment, lets focus on just four possibilities:

• Connect: The actions of player X result in retaining possession by making a pass that connects with a friendly resulting in continued puck possession
• Lose: The actions of player X results in a loss of possession from a turnover, intercepted pass, loss of control, etc.  This interrupts the progress of X’s team and requires a shift from offense to defense.
• Dump: The actions of player X results in an intentional grounding of the puck either as an icing or as a goal line dump in an attempt to stimulate a forechecking battle.  This could be a special case of a Lose, but deserves to be treated as separate.
• Shot: The actions of player X results in a shot on goal or an attempt to shoot on goal. Whether a goal or not, the purpose of a shot is to tempt the goalie to steal possession, rather than to perpetuate puck possession.

What if we had counts and ratios of these possession results for each player on the ice?   It would give players a target to work on.  It would give coaches additional tools to monitor soft spots in puck possession.  Especially the CONNECT:LOSE ratio would identify players who are more sure-handed in puck management.

And my guess is that we would have a new tool to identify players who are hidden gems and silent risks.

I will show the first results of this new statistic in the next post and you might be surprised.

Stay tuned.