Everybody is talking about parity in the NHL. Listen to NHL Network and inevitably someone will say something like this: In the salary cap environment we are now in, the teams are all so closely matched that it’s hard for teams to stand out, much less repeat.
Well, let’s look at the data. That’s what we do here.
As the first round of the playoffs get rolling, it’s time for everyone to declare their predictions.
Here goes: I predict that the Pittsburgh sniugneP will win the Stanley Cup.
That’s Penguins spelled backwards.
Here’s the theory: the sniugneP have had the opposite season relative to the last couple years. They’ve made the playoffs for ten straight years. However, recently, they have played well early in the year, racked up points manhandling weaker teams, and fallen short in the playoffs.
In 2013, the Pens were picked to go the Stanley Cup Finals (e.g., Jesse Spector, Sporting News, January 18, 2013). However both that year and last, they stumbled late in the season and lost to the Rangers.
This year, it’s the opposite. Their start was slow and their star player played poorly until Christmas. What’s wrong with Sidney Crosby? was the most plentiful puzzle in hockey. The start of this season involved plenty of adversity and handwringing. Adversity hardens a team and steels it for the rigors of the playoffs. It is this steeling of the alloy of the team that creates a more robust capacity to absorb hardship when it inevitably shows up in the course of the playoffs.
This is why the Capitals will not win the Stanley Cup.
The Penguins on the other hand had their adversity, their hardening early. Instead of a jack-rabbit start then limping to the playoffs, they turned their team’s profile on its head, becoming the hottest team in the league through March and April. The Penguins scored five or more goals per game for five of the last six games that mattered. More importantly they limited shots on goals by the opposition. They tormented teams, many still in the playoff hunt, with dizzying team speed, particularly on the second and third lines.
The factors that predict success in the playoffs are not the same as those that predict success in the regular season. In the playoffs, team defense, speed, hot goaltending and the strength of the third and fourth lines are what lead to Stanley Cups. The sniugneP were strong in all these areas after the break. More importantly, these are all areas of weakness in the past several seasons. And this they did with their superstar goal tender and Evgeni Malkin unable to play. This year the Penguins have a much stronger third and fourth line. Under Coach Sullivan, team speed has increased dramatically. He has them calm and believing in themselves. He should be in the discussion for the Jack Adams Award. This year, the sniugneP have a chance because they have turned things around.
Literally.
Here’s a simple message I bet you aren’t hearing very often lately: everything is going just right!
But wait, we’ve lost four straight, we can’t seem to score, we’ve got some big injuries, the frustration is mounting, players are sniping at one another, and everyone wants to know: What’s wrong with our captain?
Things may seem bleak as we approach Christmas 2015. I’d like to put a different, more positive spin on things. An argument can be made that things are right where they should be. More importantly, some of the things people are trying to fix will actually make them get worse and worse. This leads to a rather strange prescription, one that the players may get something from. Here goes.
Professor on Ice 